The 15/38’s EPL Update

We’re 15/38’s through the EPL season, one in which narratives have been flip flopping more than a fish out of water. 4 weeks ago, I did a 11/38’s version, in which my final words “This season so far has been fucking awesome” still apply. Some call parity a sugar coating for the term “mediocrity”, almost the equivalent of calling a secretary an assistant.

I DON’T CARE!!!!!!!

This season, we’ve seen the rise of Southampton, Jose Mourinho jump the shark (though some might say that already happened), Roberto Martinez usurp the Everton throne from David Moyes, and Arsene Wenger going from failure to genius. It’s been the wackiest season in recent memory, with the BPL TV deal perhaps contributing to the rise of “parody” across the league. On this date last yr, the gap between First and 7th was 15 points. This yr, the gaps been reduced to 9. Manchester United were leading the league by a 6 point margin over City last season. United are now 13 points behind league leaders Arsenal, who are trying to end their 8 yr Cup drought. It’s been a fascinating 15 game sample size for pundit/writers to cultivate an understanding from, so why don’t we just go to the PDO/TSR/Final Third Touches Table with some added comments from yours truly.

Teams Gms Played Pts TSR SH% SV% PDO Final Third Touches
Arsenal 15 35 0.549 34.1 81.7 1158 3197
Liverpool 15 30 0.559 34.7 75.0 1097 2844
Chelsea 15 30 0.618 34.5 66.0 1005 2749
Man City 15 29 0.637 42.7 67.4 1101 2895
Everton 15 28 0.563 27.4 75.0 1024 2661
Tottenham 15 27 0.636 16.3 72.4 887 2776
Newcastle 15 26 0.530 27.4 69.1 965 2005
Southampton 15 23 0.578 26.8 70.1 969 2449
Man United 15 22 0.522 30.6 68.9 995 2832
Swansea 15 19 0.530 27.3 64.3 916 2589
Aston Villa 15 19 0.471 30.2 72.7 1029 1852
Hull 15 18 0.439 32.5 70.8 1033 1935
Stoke 15 17 0.441 28.9 66.2 951 2109
Norwich 15 17 0.410 25.5 69.2 947 2283
West Brom 15 15 0.487 32.1 70.4 1025 2296
Cardiff 15 14 0.366 26.2 75.0 1012 1856
West Ham 15 13 0.467 26.5 71.2 977 2104
Fulham 15 13 0.333 26.9 71.1 980 1864
Crystal Palace 15 13 0.468 21.3 63.9 852 1940
Sunderland 15 8 0.393 32.4 57.8 902 1938


  • You really have to feel for David Moyes. The amount of criticism and snark towards his job as United manager has been persistent and fierce. He’s inherited a flawed “contender”, who won the league last yr due to a real lack of contenders, a suspect Shot Ratio mark, a really high SH%, and the brilliance of Robin Van Persie during the first half of the season. He’s aged maybe 5-10 yrs in just over 3 months of the job, and down in Liverpool, Roberto Martinez has all but ensured himself a statue in his honor. I’m still a firm believer in Moyes, who’s work in Everton was the football equivalent to MacGyver.
  • Poor Southampton. 4 weeks ago, they were 3 points off of first place with the highest SV% in the EPL at 83.9. It’s now down to 70.1%, a middling mark. Artur Boruc being shelved cause of injury has played a part in the Saints PDO dropping from 1122 to a much more normal 969.
  • LOOK AT CRYSTAL PALACE!!!! Since Tony Pulis’s hiring, Palace has gained 6 of a possible 9 points while their TSR has risen to a near .500 mark. Also helping perhaps is the return of the hairless one, Marouane Chamakh.
  • Remember when we thought Alan Pardew’s job was on the line before the start of the season with the hiring of wacky fella Joe Kinnear? They now sit 7th in the Premier League, 3 points away from 4th place Manchester City. Something that’s helped them was the uptick in PDO. In week 9,  their PDO was 3rd last in the Premier League with a SV% just below 61%. Flash forward to present day and their PDO has returned to 965 while their SV% has jumped to 69.1%. Has this been a jump in quality play from Krul? Simply Math winning out? Who knows, but I’m sure Alan Pardew won’t care, though getting answers from his players will now cost you some money
  • There’s something worrying about Cardiff. In some ways they remind me of the Toronto Maple Leafs in which having a poor shot ratio and relying on the volatility of PDO is a bad recipe. They’ve gained only 2 out of a possible 15 in their recent 5 game stretch, with one point coming from a late game header from Kim. Their next 5 games involve road games vs Liverpool and Arsenal while they have a home fixture vs Southampton. They’re only 1 point from the relegation mark, and with the recent form of Palace, it’s worrying times for Cardiff

15 games have come and gone, but the awesomeness of parity/mediocrity still reign supreme,

About Moesquare

Marseille supporter, #FancyStats supporter. Troller of all things Twitter. I write words and hope they make me sound SMRT
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