11/38’s is All we Need!

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We’re 11/38’s through the EPL season. 11/38’s! That’s a non reducible fraction for you mathematics out there. The season has been chalk full of narrative, the likes of which we haven’t seen in ages. We have no more than 8 teams within 6 points of the EPL lead, we’ve said goodbye to a fascist in Paolo Di Canio. We’ve said hello to a Southampton side who combine a destructive high pressing line with English attackers with foreign names (Jay Rodriguez, Adam Lallana). Jose Mourinho has returned to Chelsea and has evoked memories of Fat Elvis in Vegas, while we have numerous contenders displaying flaws that could derail a title winning campaign:

Chelsea:

1. Relying on a rapidly aging Lampard to be a defensive holding midfielder

2. Inconsistent Strikers (I’m looking at you Fernando Torres)

3. A subpar Juan Mata season

Man U:

1. Their midfield at times can resemble a pile of S*** though their performance against Arsenal might give United fans hope that Moyes was simply reading the United Manual in French instead of English

2. A past his prime Vidic and the Artist Formerly Known as Rio Ferdinand have been the go to CB combination while Phil Jones is increasingly looking more and more like the English David Luiz.

3. Ashley Young’s only above average attribute as a footballer is diving

Man City:

1. Joe Hart has gone to the Marc-Andre Fleury school of goalkeeping

2. Their CB depth is secretly thin

3.Their SH% will drop (more on this later)

Arsenal:

1. Despite being on top of the table, their total shot ratio is the 2nd lowest of the top 10

2. They are lacking in defensive midfielders, putting a lot of faith in Arteta and Flamini to do the job

Tottenham:

1. They play like Barcelona except instead of having Messi/Xavi/Iniesta/Neymar, they have instead Soldado/Townsend/Dembele/Paulinho

2. One reason for the putrid offensive production for Tottenham is the lack of width that they have on the pitch. Townsend’s habit of cutting in on the wing and taking long range shots have played a part in their low SH%’s

3. AVB has the same regard for concussions as Randy Carlyle.

 

We’re 28.9% of the way through the EPL season, giving us enough of a sample size to trot out some “advanced” stats for your favorite team. Metrics like TSR (Total Shot Ratio) and PDO (SH%+SV%) are starting to emerge in the mainstream, trying to remove the term “Advanced” for metrics that aren’t really advanced at all. So where does your team sit during this International Break?

Team P Pts TSR PDO Sh% Sv% Final 3rd Touches
Arsenal 11 25 0.537 1116 33.3 78.3 2395
Liverpool 11 23 0.543 1109 30.9 80.0 2198
Southampton 11 22 0.586 1122 28.3 83.9 1905
Chelsea 11 21 0.607 1057 29.5 76.2 2126
Manchester United 11 20 0.526 1050 33.3 71.7 2369
Everton 11 20 0.546 973 25.0 72.3 2076
Tottenham 11 20 0.667 952 12.3 82.9 2226
Manchester City 11 19 0.666 1019 39.4 62.5 2401
Newcastle United 11 17 0.520 985 26.8 71.4 1606
West Bromwich Albion 11 14 0.461 1098 34.3 75.5 1690
Aston Villa 11 14 0.490 1018 29.7 72.1 1404
Hull 11 14 0.430 1020 30.0 72.0 1440
Swansea 11 12 0.542 880 24.6 63.4 1942
Cardiff 11 12 0.347 1096 31.0 78.6 1420
Norwich 11 11 0.444 858 21.4 64.4 1777
West Ham 11 10 0.495 1028 27.2 75.6 1696
Stoke 11 10 0.444 987 25.6 73.1 1614
Fulham 11 10 0.288 1015 30.3 71.2 1351
Sunderland 11 7 0.406 885 30.8 57.7 1500
Crystal Palace 11 4 0.447 784 18.8 59.6 1481

Notes:

  1. The fact that Martin Jol is still manager despite having by far the lowest TSR in the league, lowest Final Third touches in the league is hilariously depressing. The phrase “Dead Man Walking” has never been more apropos. His teams have looked lifeless and they lost to fricking Crystal Palace!
  2. You can honestly say that Joe Hart has cost Man City a top 4 position as it stands cause every other metric screams “TITLE CONTENDER”. Mistakes at Villa Park and Stanford Bridge screwed City of probable road points.
  3. Some hope for Swansea going forward as their TSR is the strongest from the bottom 10 while sporting a PDO that’s due for an uptick with the quality they have

So that’s the table for the 11 games. Want to see Home/Road splits? Of course you do:

Team P (Away) Pts TSR PDO Sh% Sv% Final Third Touches
Arsenal 6 13 0.501 1150 36.7 78.3 1111
Spurs 5 10 0.662 1034 12.5 90.9 792
Man United 5 9 0.550 1150 40.0 75.0 761
Everton 6 9 0.578 896 33.3 56.3 985
Newcastle 6 9 0.461 954 24.2 71.2 602
Aston Villa 5 8 0.468 1078 27.8 80.0 461
Liverpool 5 8 0.444 1098 34.8 75.0 714
Southampton 5 8 0.513 1024 19.1 83.3 628
West Brom 6 7 0.429 1045 28.9 75.6 617
Swansea 5 6 0.500 904 15.4 75.0 593
West Ham 6 6 0.474 1024 19.1 83.3 691
Fulham 6 6 0.161 1211 45.5 75.6 463
Chelsea 5 5 0.543 943 16.0 78.3 716
Cardiff 6 5 0.386 965 23.5 73.0 694
Man City 6 4 0.646 759 23.5 52.4 1127
Stoke 6 4 0.418 956 28.0 67.6 652
Hull 6 3 0.369 919 31.3 60.6 536
Norwich 5 3 0.341 681 13.3 54.8 577
Sunderland 5 1 0.308 806 28.6 52.0 471
Crystal Palace 5 0 0.419 789 18.2 60.7 501
Teams P (Home) Pts TSR PDO SH% SV% Final Third Touches
Chelsea 6 16 0.661 1126 38.9 73.7 1410
Man City 5 15 0.690 1359 54.1 81.8 1274
Liverpool 6 15 0.630 1153 28.9 86.4 1484
Southampton 6 14 0.645 1190 34.4 84.6 1277
Arsenal 5 12 0.567 1084 30.1 78.3 1284
Man United 6 11 0.569 1049 27.6 77.3 1608
Everton 5 11 0.518 1071 21.4 85.7 1091
Hull 5 11 0.496 1227 28.6 94.1 904
Tottenham 6 10 0.671 914 12.2 79.2 1434
Newcastle 5 8 0.596 1010 30.4 70.6 1000
Norwich 6 8 0.522 1009 25.9 75.0 1200
West Brom 5 7 0.509 1179 42.9 75.0 1073
Cardiff 5 7 0.290 1266 41.7 84.9 726
Swansea 6 6 0.577 874 31.4 56.0 1349
Stoke 5 6 0.486 1047 21.4 83.3 962
Aston Villa 6 6 0.506 994 31.6 67.8 943
Sunderland 6 6 0.482 946 31.6 63.0 1029
West Ham 4 4 0.516 1084 41.7 66.7 1005
Fulham 4 4 0.436 868 22.8 64.0 888
Crystal Palace 4 4 0.469 774 19.1 58.3 980

Notes:

1. My god, City’s SV% on the road is the worst in the EPL, helping the Noisy Neighbors sport a below 800 PDO. While their form at home will regress a little, they should bounce back strong on the road if Joe Hart can give them competent goalkeeping/better karma (luck)

2. In general, teams have performed much better at home than on the road. We have 5 teams crack .600 or better TSR’s at home compared to just two on the road. I’m not sure if it’s supposed to be this slanted in terms of shot dominance but so far it has.

3. I don’t want to rag on Fulham much, but they’re sporting a near 50% Shooting % on the road, the highest in the EPL. Their shot ratio is absolutely terrible on the road. Their next 4 on the road is at West Ham/Norwich/Hull/Arsenal, teams that have generally done decently at home

4. Southampton have ascended substantially from their form last yr. They have been dominant at home and though their PDO is well over 1000, their form at home anecdotally has been beautiful on the eye. 4 of their next 5 matches are against Arsenal/Chelsea/City/Newcastle, giving us the opportunity to see how that high pressing line does against sides that generate lots of Final third touches and shots.

So there you have it. 11/38’s of the season has finished. We still don’t know much other than this: This season so far has been fucking awesome.  

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About Moesquare

Marseille supporter, #FancyStats supporter. Troller of all things Twitter. I write words and hope they make me sound SMRT
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One Response to 11/38’s is All we Need!

  1. Maybe there’s a piece in this, but hear me out:

    A subpar Juan Mata season is only happening because his manager, for whatever reason, is playing him out of position. He has marginalized Mata, trying to convert him into a winger, and that might be good for Mata in the long run but it’s killing Chelsea (sorta) right now.

    The question I have is this. Let’s say Oscar gets hurt for a month. Who becomes the 10? Rather, who do you think Mourinho slots in as the 10?

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